Analyst suggests Destiny could be biggest selling game of the year

According to analysis done by Doug Creutz, a Cowen Research analyst, Destiny could on its way to being the biggest selling game of the year. Using statistical analysis based on the number of pre-orders, Cowen’s ‘Ordometer’ is able to predict the likely number of sales a game will see. Bungie’s latest game has the highest score on the Ordometer of any game in the last four years. Creutz believes that this means it could possibly sell anywhere between 10 and 15 million copies of the game.

The Ordometer uses data gathered from a variety of sources to estimate pre-order numbers before correlating those results with the game’s sales after launch. In the same report he states that Battlefield: Hardline is performing poorly so far while Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare is doing as well as Black Ops 2 did, which went on to be the biggest selling entry in the franchise. A surprising game that has a high score is Dragon Age: inquisition. Creutz predicts it could go on to sell around 4 million copies.

The report will be welcomed by Activision who have spent $500 million on Destiny. This total cost accounts for development, marketing and R&D, making Destiny the most expensive game ever made. The publisher has gambled on the new franchise becoming a blockbuster hit much like its Call of Duty franchise. They have previously said that pre-order data for the game suggests it would perform well at launch, with chief financial officer Dennis Durkin saying: “We expect it to be the biggest new intellectual property launch in history.”

Destiny hits store shelves September 9 and will release on the Xbox One, Xbox 360, PlayStation 3 and PlayStation 4. It will however be launching into a crowded first-person shooter market with rival games Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare and Battlefield: Hardline releasing in November and October respectively.